As the losses continued to mount, the Memphis Grizzlies found themselves in a precarious position. With a dismal 4-13 record by the end of November, hope lingered that the season could still be salvaged with the imminent return of their All-Star point guard, Ja Morant.

However, Morant’s delayed season debut due to a 25-game suspension for conduct detrimental to the league only added to the team’s woes. With each passing game, Memphis fell further behind in what was shaping up to be one of the most competitive Western Conference playoff races in NBA history.

Morant finally returned to action on December 19, injecting newfound energy into the team. The Grizzlies managed a commendable 6-3 record in the nine games he played before he suffered a devastating season-ending injury—a labral tear in his right shoulder.

With Morant sidelined, any hopes of a playoff push were dashed in an instant. Yet, speculation remains: what if Morant had remained healthy?

Now, with the benefit of hindsight and a clear view of how the Western Conference standings unfolded, we can ponder whether the Grizzlies could realistically have overcome their early-season struggles, climbed out of a 6-19 hole, and mounted a successful playoff push.

Could Ja Morant have propelled Memphis to the playoffs?

The turning point came on January 5th, when the Grizzlies clinched a convincing 127-113 victory over the Los Angeles Lakers, boosting their record to 12-23. Notably, the Lakers, who eventually secured the No. 7 seed, were hovering at 17-19 at the time.

During Morant’s tenure on the court, the Grizzlies showcased a remarkable winning percentage, triumphing in two out of every three games. With 47 games remaining in the season, sustaining that pace would have positioned Memphis in the fourth spot in the Western Conference standings over a full season. Extrapolating this winning rate post-Morant’s return on December 19th would have projected a season finale with a 43-39 record.

However, despite this promising trajectory, Memphis would have fallen short of the play-in tournament by three games, with the Golden State Warriors clinching the 10th seed with a 46-36 record. To bridge this gap, the Grizzlies would have needed to maintain an astounding 34-13 record, akin to a 59-win pace over 82 games.

The repercussions of this hypothetical success on the draft status of the Grizzlies are intriguing. Despite their season’s conclusion, marked by notable discoveries like Vince Williams Jr. as a rotation asset and the rookie ascent of GG Jackson, Memphis retained the seventh-best odds for securing the top pick in the 2024 NBA Draft before the lottery.

However, the draft lottery didn’t favor Memphis, resulting in a descent of two spots to the ninth position in the draft order. Remarkably, even with a healthy Morant and a narrowly missed postseason berth, the Grizzlies’ draft positioning wouldn’t have significantly changed, eventually securing the 12th pick.

In the aftermath of injuries and trades that underscored significant roster alterations in the season’s final months, Memphis faces an offseason brimming with unresolved queries in their pursuit of championship glory. Many of these answers could have been attainable sans the injury setbacks.