James is set to become a free agent for the first time since 2018
LeBron James’ free agency decisions are always monumental. His 2010 “Decision” to leave the Cleveland Cavaliers for the Miami Heat forever altered the power dynamics between players and teams. In 2014, his choice to return to the Cavaliers set the stage for one of the NBA’s most unforgettable championships in 2016. His 2018 move to the Los Angeles Lakers revitalized a historic franchise that had been struggling for years.
Now, for the first time since 2018, James has the opportunity to become a free agent again. However, this isn’t guaranteed. James holds a $51.4 million player option with the Lakers, which he can either accept or decline by June 29. If he declines, he will enter the open market. So, where will James play in the 2024-25 season? How much can he earn? Here’s a breakdown of what to expect from his potential free agency.
In terms of earnings, there are three possible contract structures to consider, all variations of the maximum contract. Regardless of the team, James can only sign a contract lasting three seasons due to the Over-38 Rule, which prevents teams from circumventing the salary cap by paying older players after they retire. James, being 39, falls under this rule.
The most lucrative deal for James would be an opt-in followed by an extension, likely with the Lakers but possibly with another team via trade. This contract would start at his option value of approximately $51.4 million and include 8% annual raises for the 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons, totaling just over $164 million.
There are two crucial points to note about this contract format. First, James cannot sign it until August 18, the two-year anniversary of his last extension. Second, James would not be eligible for a no-trade clause, as such clauses can only be included in new contracts, not added to existing ones. If these are deal-breakers for James, he could opt out and immediately sign a new contract with the Lakers. This new deal would be slightly less expensive for the Lakers since his 2024-25 salary would need to be slightly lower. Instead of the built-in 8% raise from his last contract, James would only be able to receive a 5% raise, reflecting his maximum salary on the open market. Therefore, his starting salary would be just under $50 million, with 8% annual raises thereafter. The total value of this contract would be just under $162 million.
Finally, we have to consider what a contract might look like if he were to find a new team in free agency. The format here would be similar to the one above. James would be eligible for a 5% raise on his previous salary as his maximum starting point on such a deal, but could then only receive 5% raises moving forward. The total figure here would come in at roughly $157 million.
James could theoretically take less than the maximum salary, but he hasn’t done so since returning to the Cavaliers for the 2014-15 season. The figures mentioned represent his maximum potential earnings for the next deal, though accepting anything less is possible but unlikely.
Potential Teams Interested:
The clear frontrunner is the Lakers, as there is no significant indication that James is seriously considering other teams. The Lakers can easily pay him using his Bird Rights and have consistently treated him as a partner in team-building. They are likely to consult him on roster moves this offseason. Currently, the expectation is that James will remain with the Lakers next season.
However, let’s explore the potential alternatives. The easiest way for James to join another team would be through free agency. At present, only two teams are projected to have the $49,987,718 in cap space required to offer James his max salary. One of these teams is the Detroit Pistons, which is an unlikely destination for James.
The other team with the necessary cap space is the Philadelphia 76ers, a far more intriguing option. We’ve extensively covered James’ potential fit with the 76ers, but in summary: Philadelphia’s roster is currently pared down to Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey. James could team up with them to form one of the most talented trios in basketball. Additionally, with around $12 million in cap space and the mid-level exception, the 76ers could assemble a solid supporting cast.
However, even if James is interested, the 76ers have been more frequently linked to Paul George, another star small forward in this year’s free-agent market. The 76ers might prefer George, but James would likely be their second choice for a star acquisition, as other targets would require trading draft picks. They’ve been linked to players like Jimmy Butler, but their preference is to add talent without sacrificing assets.
Eight other teams have relatively clear paths to creating cap space, but the Hornets, Raptors, and Jazz are not appealing destinations. The Magic and Spurs offer interesting basketball situations, but both are young teams, making immediate winning unlikely.
The Oklahoma City Thunder could come close to James’ max salary with their roughly $35 million in space by offloading players like Josh Giddey and Kenrich Williams. James has previously expressed admiration for Thunder GM Sam Presti, and with Oklahoma City’s abundance of draft picks, drafting Bronny James would be straightforward. However, it seems unlikely that James would want to end his career in a market like Oklahoma City.